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COMCAST CORP (CMCSA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter and year: Q4 revenue $31.92B (+2.1% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $8.81B (+9.9% YoY), Adjusted EPS $0.96 (+13.9% YoY). Diluted EPS rose to $1.24, aided by a $1.9B tax benefit tied to an internal reorg with a cash refund expected in 2025 .
  • Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA grew 3.5% YoY with margin up 120 bps to 38.3%, despite 139K broadband subscriber losses and hurricane impacts; wireless added 307K lines and Business Services revenue +3.7% .
  • Media and Studios strengthened: Peacock revenue +28% to $1.3B with EBITDA loss improving to -$372M; Studios EBITDA +85% to $569M on strong theatrical (Wicked, The Wild Robot) .
  • Capital return catalyst: Dividend increased to $1.32 annualized for 2025 and new $15B share repurchase authorization; Q4 capital returned totaled $3.2B .
  • 2025 playbook: Lean harder into wireless with simplified converged bundles; maintain cable CapEx intensity “just over 10%”; Peacock losses to improve even as NBA costs arrive; Epic Universe opening May 22, 2025 with >$100M Q1 pre-opening costs .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Connectivity mix and margins: Total C&P EBITDA +3.5% and margin +120 bps to 38.3%; Residential margin +120 bps to 36.0% on lower programming costs and pricing/ARPU strength .
  • Peacock and Studios performance: Peacock revenue $1.3B (+28%) with sharply improved losses (–$372M vs –$825M prior year); Studios EBITDA +85% to $569M on successful releases (Wicked, The Wild Robot) .
  • Shareholder returns and confidence: 17th consecutive annual dividend hike to $1.32 and $15B buyback authorization; $3.2B returned in Q4 via $1.2B dividends and $2.0B repurchases .
  • Management quote: “We had the best financial performance in our company’s 60-year history with record revenue, EBITDA and EPS along with significant free cash flow” – Brian Roberts .

What Went Wrong

  • Broadband subscriber pressure: Net broadband losses of 139K in Q4, “disappointing and worse” than indications in early December; competition from fiber and fixed wireless remains intense .
  • Theme Parks near-term headwind: Q4 Theme Parks EBITDA –3.9% due to pre-opening costs (~$35M) for Epic Universe; Q1 2025 pre-opening costs to exceed $100M .
  • Hurricanes impact: Hurricanes Milton and Helene had a modest negative impact on C&P results and broadband net adds in the quarter .
  • Analyst concerns: ARPU trajectory vs. deeper wireless bundling; margins to expand at a “slightly lower rate” in 2025 given increased wireless investments .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$29,688 $32,070 $31,915
Diluted EPS ($)$1.00 $0.94 $1.24
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.21 $1.12 $0.96
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$10,171 $9,735 $8,807
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$4,724 $7,021 $8,080
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$1,338 $3,406 $3,260
Connectivity & Platforms Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)41.9% 40.9% 38.3%

Segment revenue

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Connectivity & Platforms (Total)$20,245 $20,291 $20,464
Residential Connectivity & Platforms$17,824 $17,866 $18,016
Business Services Connectivity$2,421 $2,425 $2,448
Media$6,324 $8,231 $7,222
Studios$2,253 $2,826 $3,269
Theme Parks$1,975 $2,289 $2,374

Segment adjusted EBITDA

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Connectivity & Platforms (Total)$8,483 $8,295 $7,842
Residential Connectivity & Platforms$7,103 $6,904 $6,479
Business Services Connectivity$1,380 $1,391 $1,363
Media$1,356 $650 $298
Studios$124 $468 $569
Theme Parks$632 $847 $838

KPIs

KPI (Net Adds/Losses, ‘000)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Domestic Broadband(120) (87) (139)
Total Domestic Wireless Lines+322 +319 +307
Total Domestic Video Customers(419) (365) (311)
Total C&P Customer Relationships(275) (29) (58)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend (annualized)2025N/A (company stated +$0.08) $1.32 per share Raised
Quarterly dividendQ1 2025 paymentN/A$0.33/share payable Apr 23, 2025; record Apr 2, 2025 Maintained cadence
Share repurchase authorizationEffective Jan 31, 2025N/A$15B authorization, no expiration New/Expanded
Cable CapEx intensityFY 20252024 “just over 10%” baseline “In and around” just over 10% in 2025 Maintained
Cash taxesFY 2025N/ATailwind “roughly a couple billion” from tax refund New
Tax refund on internal reorg2025N/AExpect cash tax refund related to $1.9B benefit New
Epic Universe pre-opening costsQ1 2025N/A“Over $100M” majority landing in Q1 New
Wireless investmentsFY 2025N/ALeaning into wireless; added investment planned Raised investment
Peacock EBITDA loss trajectoryFY 20252024 loss improved by ~$1B Expect continued improvement in 2025 despite NBA costs Maintained improving trend

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2, Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Broadband competition & convergenceQ2: ARPU +3.6%, C&P margin record; Q3: ACP end impacted net adds, ARPU +3.6% Q4: –139K broadband; shift to simplified converged bundles; focus on wireless attach and revenue growth Competitive pressure rising; strategic pivot to convergence
Network tech & AI (Project Genesis)Q2: Mid-split 42% deployment and network expansion Q4: 50% virtualized, targeting ~70% by year-end; AI across network; new pricing/packaging in upgraded markets Execution progressing; AI integration expanding
Media/PeacockQ2: Peacock revenue $1.0B (+28%), loss improved ; Q3: Olympics boosted Media; Peacock rev $1.5B, loss –$436M Q4: Peacock rev $1.3B (+28%), loss –$372M; NBA begins in 2025; pricing/ad mix to absorb costs over first season Sustained improvement; NBA to drive subs with near-term cost absorption
StudiosQ2: weaker vs prior year slate Q4: EBITDA +85% to $569M; strong theatrical (Wicked, The Wild Robot) Strengthening
Theme ParksQ2/Q3: declines; Q3 stabilization underway Q4: EBITDA –3.9% on ~$35M pre-opening costs; Epic opens May 22, 2025; >$100M Q1 pre-opening costs Stabilizing; near-term cost headwind; major 2025 catalyst
Spin-off (“SpinCo”)Q3/Q2: n/aQ4: Intend to spin off select cable tv networks tax-free; leadership named; future NBCU focused on broadcast/Peacock Structural portfolio optimization underway
Weather / HurricanesQ2/Q3: n/aQ4: Hurricanes Milton/Helene modest negative impact Transitory headwind

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Roberts): “best financial performance in our company’s 60-year history with record revenue, EBITDA and EPS along with significant free cash flow” .
  • President (Cavanagh): “we will lean into wireless more than ever before... shift our strategy to package mobile with more of our higher-tier broadband products” and boost Xfinity Mobile speeds by up to 1 Gbps on 23M WiFi hotspots .
  • CFO (Armstrong): “lost 139,000 [broadband] customers… while we grew ARPU 3.1%;… convergence revenue grew 5%,” CapEx intensity “just over 10%” in 2024 and similar in 2025; FCF tailwind “roughly a couple billion” from cash taxes in 2025 .
  • Connectivity CEO (Watson): “fundamental shift” to include mobile in higher-tier broadband packaging; simplifying and reducing customer friction; packaging to ramp in Q2 .

Q&A Highlights

  • Wireless bundling and growth: Expect acceleration as mobile is included in more broadband tiers; service revenue growth mid-teens; 1.2M lines added YoY to 7.8M; MVNO renewal: “no new news,” confident position with consolidated market dynamics .
  • Project Genesis and pricing: 50% of phase one completed; simplified converged packaging to launch in Q2 in upgraded markets; too early to read competitive shift before full marketing launch .
  • ARPU vs convergence: ARPU growth expected to remain healthy, though deeper wireless bundling could modestly impact ARPU; focus is total broadband and convergence revenue growth .
  • Free cash flow outlook: 2025 FCF tailwind ~$2B from cash taxes; working capital headwind goalposts $1.5–$2.0B; cable CapEx intensity around just over 10% .
  • Margin trajectory: Expect continued margin expansion, “maybe at a slightly lower rate” in 2025 due to wireless investment; long-term mix-shift to higher-margin connectivity remains intact .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved due to data access limits; therefore, we cannot assess Q4 revenue/EPS vs. Street consensus at this time (consensus unavailable; attempted S&P Global pull failed due to request limit) [SPGI error: GetEstimates]. Values retrieved from S&P Global would be used if available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Capital return catalyst likely supportive for shares: 6.5% dividend increase to $1.32 and new $15B buyback signal confidence and sustained FCF generation .
  • Connectivity execution: Despite continued broadband pressure (–139K), margin expansion and ARPU growth, plus deeper wireless bundling, should underpin revenue and cash flow trajectory in 2025 .
  • Peacock trajectory improving with NBA tailwind: Expect continued EBITDA loss improvement in 2025 while NBA costs are absorbed via pricing/ad mix; subscriber growth anticipated .
  • Studios strength offsets Media volatility: Strong slate drove Q4 EBITDA +85%; pipeline (How to Train Your Dragon, Jurassic World Rebirth, Wicked for Good) supports 2025 .
  • Theme Parks near-term cost headwind, medium-term catalyst: Q1 pre-opening costs >$100M and Epic Universe opens May 22, 2025; significant attendance/revenue potential .
  • Structural portfolio optimization: SpinCo separation streamlines NBCU focus on broadcast+Peacock, potentially unlocking value from cable networks as a standalone .
  • Trading lens: Watch for Q1 impact (Epic pre-opening costs), bundling strategy rollout in Q2 (ARPU vs. net adds), Peacock pricing moves around NBA season, and pace of buybacks under the new $15B authorization .