CC
COMCAST CORP (CMCSA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record quarter and year: Q4 revenue $31.92B (+2.1% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $8.81B (+9.9% YoY), Adjusted EPS $0.96 (+13.9% YoY). Diluted EPS rose to $1.24, aided by a $1.9B tax benefit tied to an internal reorg with a cash refund expected in 2025 .
- Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA grew 3.5% YoY with margin up 120 bps to 38.3%, despite 139K broadband subscriber losses and hurricane impacts; wireless added 307K lines and Business Services revenue +3.7% .
- Media and Studios strengthened: Peacock revenue +28% to $1.3B with EBITDA loss improving to -$372M; Studios EBITDA +85% to $569M on strong theatrical (Wicked, The Wild Robot) .
- Capital return catalyst: Dividend increased to $1.32 annualized for 2025 and new $15B share repurchase authorization; Q4 capital returned totaled $3.2B .
- 2025 playbook: Lean harder into wireless with simplified converged bundles; maintain cable CapEx intensity “just over 10%”; Peacock losses to improve even as NBA costs arrive; Epic Universe opening May 22, 2025 with >$100M Q1 pre-opening costs .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Connectivity mix and margins: Total C&P EBITDA +3.5% and margin +120 bps to 38.3%; Residential margin +120 bps to 36.0% on lower programming costs and pricing/ARPU strength .
- Peacock and Studios performance: Peacock revenue $1.3B (+28%) with sharply improved losses (–$372M vs –$825M prior year); Studios EBITDA +85% to $569M on successful releases (Wicked, The Wild Robot) .
- Shareholder returns and confidence: 17th consecutive annual dividend hike to $1.32 and $15B buyback authorization; $3.2B returned in Q4 via $1.2B dividends and $2.0B repurchases .
- Management quote: “We had the best financial performance in our company’s 60-year history with record revenue, EBITDA and EPS along with significant free cash flow” – Brian Roberts .
What Went Wrong
- Broadband subscriber pressure: Net broadband losses of 139K in Q4, “disappointing and worse” than indications in early December; competition from fiber and fixed wireless remains intense .
- Theme Parks near-term headwind: Q4 Theme Parks EBITDA –3.9% due to pre-opening costs (~$35M) for Epic Universe; Q1 2025 pre-opening costs to exceed $100M .
- Hurricanes impact: Hurricanes Milton and Helene had a modest negative impact on C&P results and broadband net adds in the quarter .
- Analyst concerns: ARPU trajectory vs. deeper wireless bundling; margins to expand at a “slightly lower rate” in 2025 given increased wireless investments .
Financial Results
Segment revenue
Segment adjusted EBITDA
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Roberts): “best financial performance in our company’s 60-year history with record revenue, EBITDA and EPS along with significant free cash flow” .
- President (Cavanagh): “we will lean into wireless more than ever before... shift our strategy to package mobile with more of our higher-tier broadband products” and boost Xfinity Mobile speeds by up to 1 Gbps on 23M WiFi hotspots .
- CFO (Armstrong): “lost 139,000 [broadband] customers… while we grew ARPU 3.1%;… convergence revenue grew 5%,” CapEx intensity “just over 10%” in 2024 and similar in 2025; FCF tailwind “roughly a couple billion” from cash taxes in 2025 .
- Connectivity CEO (Watson): “fundamental shift” to include mobile in higher-tier broadband packaging; simplifying and reducing customer friction; packaging to ramp in Q2 .
Q&A Highlights
- Wireless bundling and growth: Expect acceleration as mobile is included in more broadband tiers; service revenue growth mid-teens; 1.2M lines added YoY to 7.8M; MVNO renewal: “no new news,” confident position with consolidated market dynamics .
- Project Genesis and pricing: 50% of phase one completed; simplified converged packaging to launch in Q2 in upgraded markets; too early to read competitive shift before full marketing launch .
- ARPU vs convergence: ARPU growth expected to remain healthy, though deeper wireless bundling could modestly impact ARPU; focus is total broadband and convergence revenue growth .
- Free cash flow outlook: 2025 FCF tailwind ~$2B from cash taxes; working capital headwind goalposts $1.5–$2.0B; cable CapEx intensity around just over 10% .
- Margin trajectory: Expect continued margin expansion, “maybe at a slightly lower rate” in 2025 due to wireless investment; long-term mix-shift to higher-margin connectivity remains intact .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved due to data access limits; therefore, we cannot assess Q4 revenue/EPS vs. Street consensus at this time (consensus unavailable; attempted S&P Global pull failed due to request limit) [SPGI error: GetEstimates]. Values retrieved from S&P Global would be used if available.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Capital return catalyst likely supportive for shares: 6.5% dividend increase to $1.32 and new $15B buyback signal confidence and sustained FCF generation .
- Connectivity execution: Despite continued broadband pressure (–139K), margin expansion and ARPU growth, plus deeper wireless bundling, should underpin revenue and cash flow trajectory in 2025 .
- Peacock trajectory improving with NBA tailwind: Expect continued EBITDA loss improvement in 2025 while NBA costs are absorbed via pricing/ad mix; subscriber growth anticipated .
- Studios strength offsets Media volatility: Strong slate drove Q4 EBITDA +85%; pipeline (How to Train Your Dragon, Jurassic World Rebirth, Wicked for Good) supports 2025 .
- Theme Parks near-term cost headwind, medium-term catalyst: Q1 pre-opening costs >$100M and Epic Universe opens May 22, 2025; significant attendance/revenue potential .
- Structural portfolio optimization: SpinCo separation streamlines NBCU focus on broadcast+Peacock, potentially unlocking value from cable networks as a standalone .
- Trading lens: Watch for Q1 impact (Epic pre-opening costs), bundling strategy rollout in Q2 (ARPU vs. net adds), Peacock pricing moves around NBA season, and pace of buybacks under the new $15B authorization .